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u/travis_sk 8h ago
We're only 2 days into June folks. This is gonna be a fun couple of months.
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u/biggington 7h ago
They really got our C-suites addicted to tech meth and now we gotta deal with their bullshit
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u/scprotz 7h ago
OMG. tech meth. That is exactly so appropriate. It gives a C-suite a short-term high. They bet everything on it, and then they're back by the Wendy's dumpster begging for tokens.
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u/byteturtle 7h ago edited 7h ago
I've been saying to my friends and anyone who will listen for a while that the AI companies have basically been taking the drug dealer approach where they get everyone hooked for cheap and will jack up the prices.
The only company I can see not being forced to go crazy with the dollars per token is Google and that's only because they have so much capital and infrastructure from other stuff that they can take the L for longer to steal market share, but then again they're just as greedy as every other large company on the market.
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u/Embarrassed-Disk1643 7h ago
The crazy thing is is that drug dealers don't even really do this. Drug dealers are 99% users who deal with other users to maintain a lifestyle of use, which is what you think big tech would. The product is already sought after, no one has to convince anyone being high is fucking awesome.
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u/AaronRodgersMustache 5h ago
99% of drug dealers? I thought the first rule was don't get high on your own supply. I heard that from a highly respected colleague.
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u/BlatantConservative The past tense of "troubleshoot" is "troubleshat" 6h ago
Drug dealers do this by accident a lot because bad measurement and purity means people are gradually acclimated to more intense stuff over time
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u/khl791 6h ago edited 6h ago
I fear the same. The thing is the biggest player can operate at a loss for the longest to secure the biggest market share. Some of these companies will fail to monetize fast enough and absolutely tank. Bezos and others are already working on renting out hardware and computing power to consumers.
If they have it their way we will basically end up being forced to buy tokens from the biggest player for something as simple as a search request.11
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u/out_of_shape_hiker 7h ago
And they don't understand it, don't understand it's limitations or use cases, and are so impressed by it's ability to be a chat-bot that flatters them, they think it can do anything. All while cutting costs and making line go up.
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u/possibly_being_screw 4h ago
One of the security directors where I work is fucking obsessed with AI.
He's a corporate drone to nth degree so he knows all the buzz words and corporate-isms. He'll say shit like,
We need to strategically leverage next-gen AI-native cyber resilience orchestration to holistically operationalize a quantum-ready, zero-trust security fabric powered by autonomous machine-learning-driven threat cognition, blockchain identity assurance, and predictive behavioral telemetry fusion in order to proactively neutralize emerging nation-state attack vectors while maximizing stakeholder synergy, digital transformation velocity, and enterprise-wide operational scalability.
with full sincerity. So he riles up upper management with all the AI buzz words then gets angry that his corporate vomit can't be done by end of Q2.
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u/pyronius 7h ago
This crash is going to be legendary.
It's not just going to take out the AI conpanies and their investors. It's not just going to kill your 401k. It's already obliterating the workforce as a whole, hollowing out companies across every single segment of the economy. It's putting longstanding companies and new startups in debt, convincing them that they absolutely must use the new, ridiculously expensive product or fall behind. It's capturing taxpayer money for ridiculous power plant projects that nobody else wants. It's clearcutting land for impossibly huge "datacenters" that will eventually turn into useless warehouses. It's driving up the cost of all consumer electronics and forcibly pausing upgrade cycles that have been running for decades.
I honestly don't think that the US will survive this collapse, given everything else going on right now.
This will be the crash.
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u/claimTheVictory 6h ago
It's been 16 years since the big crash of 2008.
People have forgotten that failure is possible.
That leverage increases the impact of downsides, too.
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u/DWALLA44 6h ago
It won't be, people as a whole are extremely resilient. It will probably take planetary crash for a US crash IMO.
It will be a legendary one though, you're right about that. It will change history.
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u/KriegMorgan 5h ago
It will probably take planetary crash for a US crash IMO.
You mean something like coinciding with a growing energy crises as a result of a certain strait that for some reason has stopped Hormuzing?
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u/ImDonaldDunn 5h ago
It’s sad because it could have all been avoided. They did not have to dump trillions into it. They could have just let the technology progress at a normal pace.
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u/ZealousidealTill2355 5h ago
Lol not even tech meth. It’s like tech gas-station-stacker at this point if you’re outside the software bubble.
I had a finance lady pinging the group thread saying she wants to team up with someone and work on an AI agent for budgeting. Meanwhile, I just asked it for an off-the-cuff future value calculation, and it got it wrong by several 0’s.
Good luck with that, Carol.
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u/diddypartyorganizer 8h ago
Why June specifically?
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u/LooksLikeAWookie 8h ago
Big AI models, like Claude, just switched to high-cost token models. The bill for this revolutionary tech now just went through the roof for most companies.
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u/Welp_BackOnRedit23 7h ago
The best part is that most estimates still show they are operating at a loss with those costs.
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u/realdawnerd 6h ago
And at best maybe breaking even. How that deserves their valuation is beyond me.
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u/Flimsy-Ad-858 4h ago
Just another $200B to OpenAI and they'll finally break through and be profitable bro please bro you gotta spend money to make money bro
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u/AltruisticSalamander 6h ago
Oh great, they've been nagging us to use AI for the last 2y. Now it's going to be 'don't use AI for that! It's too expensive!', doling it out like caviar.
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u/Phailjure 6h ago
I got an email to only use auto mode in vscode, and use a specific model only if it's really needed, etc etc.
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u/Kimbernator 4h ago
Realistically it’s just not possible to moderate on the user side. It’s opaque what things use a lot of tokens and what is minor. Some sort of efficiency gains will be required to keep doing what companies are doing.
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u/Kerbourgnec 7h ago
I guess we are massively gonna be forced to move to dirt cheap Chinese models.
Performance is not that bad, but can't compete with 2026 opus or gpt
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u/physical0 7h ago
Once that happens, AI will be a matter of national security and foreign AI will be banned.
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u/DOAiB 7h ago
lol got every company to fire all their juniors and made all their seniors 10x out put just to rugpull the companies that now have to pay more than the employees cost in the first place. If only the executives they made these calls were taken to task but they don’t.
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u/Turbulent_Voice63 7h ago
It was always going to happen. What's surprisingly weird is that this revolutionary tech also revolutionarily sped up the rate of enshittification, and now we are entering the phase where it really sucks
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u/oshaboy 8h ago
I assume it's because the API bills are being sent to companies now.
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u/AggressiveRow4000 7h ago
As far as I know it is seats+usage billed monthly, a month behind.
It's more likely because Budget just ran the quarterly report for the 2nd quarter and they are freaking the fuck out.
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u/CoffeePieAndHobbits 7h ago
GitHub Copilot updated their usage and pricing terms.
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u/Merlord 6h ago
An example of just how much it has changed: my (now cancelled) $40 Github Pro+ subscription used to last me the whole month. With the change, it lasted me 2 days.
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u/WashingtonBaker1 6h ago
The tokenmaxxing leaderboard is suddenly inverted - highest use employee is now at the bottom and in trouble. Least use employee gets a good review.
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u/Trevor_GoodchiId 8h ago
Come on, how hard can it be?
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u/babyburger357 8h ago
Just use claude to build claude.
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u/The_Crazy_Cat_Guy 8h ago
https://giphy.com/gifs/GialUsEqryvKxwmdeL
Use the stones to destroy the stones
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u/jtohrs 7h ago
Stones get swollen and bruised if you don't use them
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u/erinaceus_ 7h ago
The agent is willing, but the token budget is deflated and bruised.
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u/TechCF 7h ago
Actually, there is something to this. Deepseek was made by training on other models. Way faster, way cheaper, than how the other models was built.
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u/TheBestNick 7h ago
Probably not "way" cheaper anymore lol
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u/cewh 5h ago
If I remember correctly it was like 1/200th the cost compared with the model it was trained from, but in any case it definitely qualifies for "way" cheaper.
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u/NewPhoneNewSubs 7h ago
May as well use claude to build Nvidia, Samsung, and TSMC while you're at it.
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u/pieter3d 8h ago edited 8h ago
Not all that hard to run models, actually. It'll be a bit slower, but can be perfectly useable. The upside is no more token limits and no need to worry about where confidential data is going. You get full control too.
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u/whatsforsupa 8h ago
Oh, next you're going to tell me that if you have a beefy workstation or server, you can just download LM Studio, pick an LLM and just run it locally? Maybe even just coat it with a paint of html/css/js to make a web interface, and then magically add it to DNS so other users at your org can use it?
Sounds like a lot of work, I'll just keep paying Anthropic $40/month to chat
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u/standish_ 4h ago
SaaS in a nutshell.
r/localllama is right over here, folks. Roll your own, or get rolled.
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u/PMmeYourLabia_ 8h ago
Downside is power bill
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u/RoaringPanda33 8h ago
Inference (the actual generation) isn’t nearly as intensive as training, which takes a majority of the power used by AI services
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u/h3yw00d 7h ago
Sell it's use to your friends and family.
"Hey guys, I built my own AI cluster, wanna pay me $20/mo to fiddle with it?" Will go real great at the Backyard BBQ or even holidays like Thanksgiving. Be sure to talk about how useful it is for everything and how much easier life is for you.
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u/polikles 7h ago
Self-hosting would cost you more than $20 per month with multiple users. And it won't be performant enough if more than user hit it at the same time
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u/Savings_Background50 7h ago
*said in the voice of Lucille Bluth*
"It's just a LLM, Michael. How hard can it be? Ten days work?"
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u/fmr_AZ_PSM 8h ago
We're just going to have to do more with less
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u/_Screw_The_Rules_ 7h ago
So we need better devs again? Unemployment adieu!
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u/frequenZphaZe 6h ago
better devs? but.. we've all forgotten how to code by now
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u/SheriffBartholomew 6h ago
You joke, but my skills have massively atrophied over the last three years as my employer insisted we use AI for everything.
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u/fmr_AZ_PSM 6h ago
It's like riding a bike. It comes back quick. Only issue is getting caught up on the new versions and libraries since you were last in it. I started on Java 1.4. Stopped using it at 6. I think they're up to 87 now, and everything is different. Or something.
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u/Impractically_Dead 6h ago
"And by "we," I mean "you." I'm still buying my 19th hundred million dollar home and an even bigger yacht with three yachts inside it. You're just gonna have to eat the cardboard packaging your ramen came in, and work 240 hour weeks to make ends meet."
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u/skippy_smooth 8h ago
What's an AI cost, ten dollars?
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u/thicctak 8h ago
I love so much that I work in a company that has tech people as leads, so I don't have to deal with that. We're not even that heavy on AI, we all use it, but is not expected from us. Sure, salary is not top of the charts, but damn is it good to work here. Job security is also great. My lead even covered for me when I was passing through a depressive episode and my performance went to shit for a few weeks. Startups sounds cool and all, but working on enterprise have it's benefits.
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u/restrictednumber 6h ago
Amen. At the end of the day, a steady job that pays the bills is worth way more than a better-paying job that drives you nuts. Your job is meant to enable you to live real life (i.e. everything else); if it starts interfering with your happiness or stability, it's failing its main purpose.
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u/laplongejr 6h ago
My higherups are asking how AI changed my job so that I got more stability than coworkers.
I don't have the heart to remind them that because they still didn't put a new team leader, I didn't receive formal instructions on how to integrate AI besides conflicting orders about the risk of sending data to a 3rd party. And off-job I'm too dumb to use it properly anyway.
The only AI task I performed was ensuring our framework's debug AI chatbot agent was turned off in multiple ways.
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u/Wraithfighter 4h ago
The best part about working at a small-to-mid-sized company is that there just aren't enough people for managers to spend all their time managing. If you've got a team of 3-5 people, its a waste of money to hire a guy that's only going to manage people, so the smart thing to do is have one of them split their work between management and their own individual tasks.
Managers that actually work for a living are so much better overall, they actually have to get their hands dirty and can't just rely on groupthink. When you have your own tasks and you know how much, and how little, GenAI helps with it, you're going to be more understanding when your employees say "it just doesn't help that much", as opposed to a manager whose job is reading reports, writing emails, and sitting through meetings all day...
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u/Thomas_17188 8h ago
It sounds like I’ve heard this somewhere before
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u/KawaiiMaxine 8h ago edited 6h ago
Wait till he starts asking for mauve colored sql databases, i hear they have more ram
Commit change: fixed spelling of "maude"
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u/temperamentalfish 8h ago
From the same folks who brought us "my idea is basically a new google, and my budget is $25 plus you get 10% of all revenue"
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u/shaka893P 7h ago
Remember when big data was the big thing and everyone tried shoving all the databases into Hadoop? Then everything was slow AF and rolled it back
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u/mylsotol 8h ago
For probably $30k (or more) you can build a server and run an open model.
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u/Outrageous-Band8273 7h ago edited 7h ago
You can buy a computer with a Ryzen ai max+ 395 APU that can share 128GB of Ram to a decent integrated GPU made specifically to run the largest GenAI models on GPU with decent token treatment speed for 3000$.
I told that to the IT director at the company I worked at previously about a year ago, but apparently giving away data / military secret of the software we made to a foreign nation’s tech giant is fine because deploying our own IA agents is too much of a hassle. Still don’t know how they haven’t lost all their contracts with the department of defence…
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u/SpinningVinylAgain 7h ago
Impressive, very nice. Now scale it for a company with 5k software engineers, and by the way what’s going to be the service level?
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u/Outrageous-Band8273 7h ago edited 7h ago
That’s an age old question, the answer is the same every time : you have to upfront whatever SAAS would cost you for 3-5 years but it will cost half the price if not less over a decade and you don’t depend of a third party.
Service level will be whatever you are already able to produce. That said if a company with 5k software engineers can’t provide a decent service level for internal tools, maybe they’re just shit at their job…
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u/SpinningVinylAgain 7h ago
The problem is that it’s going to basically require a small data centre and a dedicated team of people to run it, and if you’re looking at running open source models you’re betting on their continued availability and the fact that they’re going to remain competitive with frontier models (both are not a given). So what would be your next step, developing your own frontier models in-house?
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u/ryecurious 6h ago
and if you’re looking at running open source models you’re betting on their continued availability
If anything, isn't it the complete opposite? A subscription-based model can be shut off at any time with no recourse or warning (Sora, for example). Local files are the only way to actually guarantee the program you use today will be available tomorrow.
You control when they run, how much they're used, when they're updated/replaced/etc.. You never wake up to find out the model that works for you has been "enhanced" with a worse version.
Not keeping pace with cutting edge models is a real concern, but that's a risk with subscription based models too.
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u/codeninja 7h ago
You're also betting the hardware you buy today is going to be able to run those future models at all.
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u/veracity8_ 6h ago
But you realize that the alternative is no AI at all, right? There are really right regulations on information. It is literally illegal to put export controlled information on servers in another country. That means your service provider has to guarantee that your data will only ever be stored on US soil. And that’s just for export controlled information. Anything more secure than that isn’t going to some 3rd party server at all.
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u/SheriffBartholomew 6h ago
Who is going to maintain all of this? Who is going to actively work on it to improve the speed and reliability of the models? You're talking about creating an entirely new company within a company. That's not how businesses work.
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u/ycnz 4h ago
According to status.claude.com, they're running at 98.66% availability over the past quarter. r/selfhosted would be ashamed of those numbers.
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u/floor_wizard 7h ago
You can buy a computer with a Ryzen ai max+ 395 APU that can share 128GB of Ram to a decent integrated GPU made specifically to run the largest GenAI models on GPU with decent token treatment speed for 3000$.
Absolutely not. The largest generative AI models need TERABYTES of memory. That doesn't even include the extra memory required for context.
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u/zarif2003 7h ago
Cool, but more money will probably result in a stronger system
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u/Outrageous-Band8273 7h ago
The usual argument is that you can’t run your own LLMs because large models require ludicrous amounts of VRAM only found in dedicated « GPUS » with prices ranging from $30k to $100k. My point was that it’s not the case anymore despite slower speeds.
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u/devperez 7h ago
Not even. Old hardware can run some open models pretty well on cheap. It won't be as good or as fast ofc, but it can be done on a budget.
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u/rwu_rwu 8h ago
Does the manager have pointy hair?
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u/kralrick 6h ago
No, but they do have a long tail and pointy ears. The pointy haired boss is just a middle manager.
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u/jacob643 7h ago
I mean, get Ollama, OpenCode, and some beefy hardware XD
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u/Hans-Wermhatt 5h ago
It's crazy how uninformed this sub is about AI... I have to imagine most of the people commenting here aren't software devs.
I'm running using Qwen 3.6 with Pi.dev right now. There are so many ways you can do this.
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u/ImSamScar 5h ago
Literally just thinking about that as I read the top comments, seems like they are all stuck in 2024 it's very odd to be so staunchly decisive about how hard it is to build a viable Ai for your firm when people like Pewdiepie are building wild home builds with a fraction of the cost and zero experience. But in here "engineers" are saying they can't build a Claude-a-like internal system...I guess the boys in China are really just that much better huh
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u/HarvestMana 3h ago
People have a bad habit of learning about something then never wanting to update the information in their in brain ever again.
Having incorrect strong opinions based on old facts is unfortunately too common since most people are overworked and cant keep up to date on all the new stuff.
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u/BobbyNeedsANewBoat 4h ago
Was scrolling through all the comments looking for someone to finally mention Qwen 3.6. Qwen 3.6 27b is absolutely fantastic for agentic coding and can run on consumer hardware.
It’s not Opus 4.8 but it’s comparable to frontier like a year or so ago and definitely pretty useful.
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u/tbhaxor 8h ago
Just tell him/her no its trademarked by anthropic
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u/Verocator 4h ago
Yeah see how that holds up in court when the training data is "the entire internet, stolen."
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u/un_blob 8h ago
At least he didn't had the "brilliant" idea of asking claude how to code a free better version of himself...
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u/TheHumanTrout 6h ago
"Generate a better version of yourself and make it free. Make no mistakes."
Its really that easy
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u/potkor 7h ago
Hi chatgpt, build me a claude ai that i will run on my 16gb dell laptop and make no mistakes or you will go to jail
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u/JacobStyle 6h ago
In the legendary manager's defense, there is no precedent for a tech company operating at a loss to build up a large roster of clients, and then jacking up the prices once they have been embedded in those clients' workflows. Nobody could have anticipated it.
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u/hamdogthecat 7h ago
"Cars are too expensive, can we build our own automobile manufacturing company?"
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u/high_throughput 8h ago
I mean, you can in fact connect your Claude instance to a model like Qwen hosted on-prem.
It would be a pretty reasonable business decision to do a feasibility study on a GPU cloud instance to see what kind of quality you would get if you were to buy some A100s.
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u/ChrisFromIT 8h ago
I mean you don't exactly need to go through the process of creating the LLM. There are quite a few out there, like Gemma 4(Google), DeepSeek V4, etc that are pretty much on par with Claude that could be used locally and freely.
Tho if I was a business, I probably would want to run it those things on a server that the company owns and controls. That way you get a bit more power and everyone in the company could use it without having to upgrade everyone's hardware.
It might cost like $100,000 to $1+ million to get the hardware going for it(depending on size requirements) and like 4-6 month wait times. But then you no longer need to pay for Claude or any LLM tokens.
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u/Leather-Rice5025 8h ago
Is there really any currently available local model that's "pretty much on par" with frontier cloud models?
Or are you saying it's the hardware that's the limiting factor, not the model itself? Genuinely curious how this works
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u/MyAwesomeName 7h ago
I don’t think any of the local models are on par with frontier cloud models, but some of the newer local models like Gemma are pretty good and probably good enough for a lot of cases.
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u/Austinp-woodworking 6h ago
Yeah a lot of the cost issues surrounding LLM usage are just that people are using models that are way overpowered for their use-cases. You've got folks using Opus 4.8 to draft emails, or to sort through every email they received that week to make a "morning report"
Yeah if you're doing complex programming work you probably need/want frontier models, but a whole lot of frontier model tokens are being burnt on tasks that could do very well on the latest local models
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u/organic_neophyte 7h ago
Apparently some security researchers used local models to look for the same coding vulnerabilities that Mythos was purported to be finding and they found the same types of vulnerabilities.
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u/boomerangchampion 7h ago
We're looking into it, the setup costs are in the millions but for a large company that's a fraction of the IT budget anyway. We spend that on laptops.
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u/Potential_Aioli_4611 8h ago
But what if you wanted it in the cloud so people all across your company could use it? and that way it would scale up too! then maybe after that we will sell it to others and charge them per by tokens /s
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u/ChrisFromIT 8h ago
But what if you wanted it in the cloud so people all across your company could use it?
That is what the server is for. But if you do scale up from there, you do become an AI company instead of whatever business you were before.
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u/-non-existance- 7h ago
Sorry, I don't speak "AI lingo" so:
What in the world does "exhausted" mean? The only thing I can think of is running out of tokens but "exhausted" sounds more permanent than that.
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u/OmegaGoober 7h ago
It just means they ran out of tokens.
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u/-non-existance- 7h ago
Really? Huh, guess I should trust my gut more often lol
How long would they have to wait for them to refresh? I can't imagine it would be too long, yeah?
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u/pathofdumbasses 6h ago
Either a month, a quarter, or a year, depending on their billing.
They are giga fucked now. They have completely changed the way their company worked and now that model is 10-1000x more expensive.
I love it for them.
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u/Milligan 7h ago
True story, 30 years ago the ceo I worked for asked me if we could develop our own operating system so we didn't have to spend so much on Windows licenses.
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u/JapanEngineer 7h ago
To be honest, it's a question I'd expect from anyone in charge of anything at a company.
Your managers job is to reduce costs while improving quality. He has no idea what it takes to get a Claude like AI running.
It's your job (I presume) to give him the options:
- switch back to human Devs only
- set limits and policies on how to use AI
- buy Anthropic
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u/shield1123 6h ago
You don't have to carry water for clueless managers. They're actually allowed to think for themselves when they want to
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u/stormtreader1 7h ago
Sure! You hire a person or team, train them for about 3 years paying them what you were going to spend on AI credits, and refer to them as Claude in internal mail
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u/Comprehensive-Pin667 8h ago
Just buy some beefy hardware and run one of the open weight models. It's not impossible.
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u/PerformerDr4867 5h ago
My boss literally did this. He is quite possibly the dumbest and most confident man alive. It’s breathtaking
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u/Gagan_Ku2905 8h ago
Engineer: Yeah we can.
Manager: For how much?
Engineer: $3 Trillion
Awkward silence